Monteq — Edge Simulator

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◈Enter probability & odds → Kelly tells optimal size.

X = bet fraction · Y = expected log-growth / bet. Half Kelly ≈ 75% growth with ~½ variance.

Ready

Press Run to simulate

Distribution + 50 equity curves. Try half Kelly first.

Ready

Press Sweep

0.25×, 0.5×, 0.75×, 1×, 1.5× head-to-head. Best median highlighted.

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⬢Add 2+ legs. Combined is product — variance explodes, Kelly shrinks fast.

Add legs on the left

Try “3-leg ex”: 60% @1.91 + 55% @2.10 + 70% @1.50

Math

At x% per bet, n losses to −50% = log(0.5)/log(1−x). Even small edges drown in streaks — size down.

Bet sizingyou can trust.